What future for Cuba?

What future for Cuba?

Change is coming to Cuba. Once again this tiny island, just 90 miles from the US coast, is in the public eye. On March 21st, 88 years after the last visit of a standing US president, President Barack Obama landed in Havana–an event that is already influencing the course of Cuban history. At stake is the lifting of a half-century US embargo before the end of Obama’s mandate. No wonder the Cuban people welcomed the President with cheers, excitement and enthusiasm.

The rapprochement between Cuba and the US started in 2013, when Barack Obama and Cuban president Raul Castro shook hands in Johannesburg, South Africa at Nelson Mandela’s funeral. After that symbolic gesture the thawing between Cuban and U.S. relations has been decisively helped by diplomatic efforts from the Vatican and the Canadian government.

On December 17th, 2014, after a long period of secret negotiations, Obama announced the beginning of a change on Cuba policy, an agreement reached thanks to an exchange of political prisoners.

In the summer of 2015 the two countries reopened their embassies in Havana and Washington. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Cuba for agricultural marketing and research collaboration. A small-scale US tractor company targeted the Cuban market. Organic food companies announced plans to import from Cuba.

Lifting the Cuban embargo could open the US to Cuban goods, or it could flood the Cuba market with US goods, or both. Predictably, despite the overwhelmingly positive response to Obama (and a decades long desire to see an end to the embargo) following President Obama’s historic speech in Havana’s Gran Teatro reaction was mixed in Cuba. Many, (including former president Fidel Castro) indicated Cuba didn’t need to be “saved” by the U.S. and its neoliberal economic model, but sought a policy of solidarity and mutual exchange and cooperation.

Already, in anticipation of increased tourism from the US, Cubans are busily opening hundreds of bed and breakfast and paladares (restaurants run out of homes). But the flip side is that Cubans are wary that the US’s entry into their economy will drive its privatization and the loss of their health and educational systems, low cost housing and guaranteed food access.

Whether Cuba can retain its social services in health, education, welfare–and food–will depend on the details of the new trade deals. Will the US seek to use the end of the embargo to conquer new markets or to engage in a mediated, respectful approach to trade? Time will tell.

Whether Cuba can retain its social services in health, education, welfare–and food–will depend on the details of the new trade deals. Will the US seek to use the end of the embargo to conquer new markets or to engage in a mediated, respectful approach to trade? Time will tell.